SIPRIY年鉴2025 第二章 武装冲突与冲突管理（试读）

SIPRI Yearbook 2025:Armaments,Disarmament and International Securitywww.sipriyearbook.org2.Armed conflict and conflict management ian davis and claudia pfeifer cruz I.IntroductionIn 2024 the global armed conflict landscape continued to deteriorate,with large-scale violence across multiple regions.1 More people were killed in armed conflict,were forced from their homes or needed humanitarian assistance than in recent years,probably for decades.2 On many battlefronts,peacemaking was non-existent or stalled.Perhaps the most pronounced change in armed conflict since 2021 has been the return of large-scale conventional interstate warfare in Europe and cross-border state-led military aggression in the Middle East.This has led diplomats,analysts and the media to shift attention to the macro-level and global geopolitics and so pay less attention to the post-cold war trend of intra-state conflicts and low-intensity violence.For example,at the United Nations General Assemblys annual high-level debate in September 2024,144 states referred to the situation in the Middle East and North Africa;116 referred to the war in Ukraine(51 of them without naming the Russian Federation as a party to the c