以色列即将面临的安全困境

ISRAELS FORTHCOMINGSECURITY DILEMMANADAV POLLAKJULY 7,2017COMMENTARYIn recent weeks Israel and Hizballah continued a time-honored tradition that tends to flare up in the hot months ofsummer:exchanging harsh words and threats regarding what each side will do to the other in the next war.These arenot empty threats.Each side has the ability to inflict tremendous damage on the other.But even though both sides areready for a war,neither Israel nor Hizballah wants one now.The main purpose of their heated rhetoric is themaintenance of deterrence and alertness.However,a recent development might raise the temperature even more.In a speech at the Herzliya Conference on June 22,Israels head of military intelligence,Maj.Gen.Herzi Halevi,basically confirmed prior reports in Arab media that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps(IRGC)is working toestablish an independent weapons industry in Lebanon focused on advanced missiles.This worryingdevelopment reportedly had become the focus of the Israel Defense Forces(IDF)and the Israeli cabinet in recent weeks,with some wondering if there will be a point at which Israel will need to execute a preemptive strike in Lebanon thatmight spark a war.Why the I