CNA_数据科学部.pdf

a.org|Distribution A.Approved for Public Release;Distribution Unlimited.Reason:Public Release Approved by:Tim Kao,VP and Director,Data Science Division October 2021FORECAST PERFORMANCE,THEN IDENTIFY ROOT CAUSESOur approach has three fundamental steps:Predictive analytics.CNA data scientists use modeling and simulation tools to construct a set of models that accurately forecast future performance.Drivers.We build models that identify internal and external factors that significantly influence performance.Prescriptive analytics.We determine the optimal combination of driver levels to achieve target performance.Our iterative analytic methodology delivers quick insights to senior leaders so they can take action to achieve objectives to ensure a competitive advantage over adversaries while ensuring effective stewardship of resources.CASE STUDY:AVIATION PERFORMANCEF/A-18 Super Hornet readiness began decreasing steadily in 2008,and fewer than half were mission-capable in 2018,when CNA became the data science partner of the aviation P2P forum.CNAs Data Science Division built a forecasting model that could anticipate the percentage of aircraft that would be mission capable with 97%accuracy.T