俄罗斯在乌克兰战场的困境

There has been a growing chorus of policy-makers and analysts who argue that the Rus-sian military holds the initiative in the war in Ukraine and will likely triumph.As one U.S.academic contended,“the United States and the West more generally and Ukraine have lost in the war over Ukraine,”and“the Russians are going to win.”1 Dmytro Kuleba,a former Ukrainian foreign minister,remarked that unless the current trajectory changes,“we will lose this war.”2 In addition,some U.S.policymakers have con-cluded that Russia has“all the cards.”3 Not surprisingly,Russian President Vladimir Putin has boasted that Russia is decisively winning on the bat-tlefield:“Overall,we can clearly see what is happening right now.Our troops have the strategic initiative along the entire contact line.”He continued that“we have reason to believe that we are set to finish them off.I think that people in Ukraine need to realize what is going on.”4 Andrei Kartapolov,head of the defense committee in the Duma,Russias lower legislative chamber,followed Putins comments with threats that if Ukraine did not accede to Russias maximalist demands in peace negotiations,Ukrainian leaders would be forced to listen to“the lan-gu