反应、冲洗、重复：欧洲如何帮助打破索马里的冲突循环

POLICY BRIEF REACT,RINSE,REPEAT:HOW EUROPE CAN HELP BREAK SOMALIAS CYCLE OF CONFLICTCorrado okMay 2025SUMMARYAfter years of setbacks,al-Shabab is regaining strength in Somalia,exploiting political infighting and obstacles around the new African Union peacekeeping operation.The peace operation began its mandate in January but already faces funding challenges due to uncertainty regarding United States commitments with the UN.In parallel,a major power struggle within Somalias electoral system is under way,with rising tensions threatening to block federal elections scheduled for May 2026.If these elections do not take place,the countrys entire institutional system could face a fatal crisis.As international partners work to address the urgent need to deter the al-Shabab offensive,they are also increasingly anxious to transfer security responsibilities to the Somali government,hoping to shift away from costly external missions.Partners can only break the cycle of external operations with a countercyclical approach that tackles Somalias structural drivers of instability,such as the fragmented anti-al-Shabab coalition and problems with the power-sharing system.As Europe grapples with its o