RAND_PE330

In 2018, the National Defense Strategy formally codified the latest shift in U.S. threat perceptions, heralding Russia as one of the “principal priorities” for the U.S. Department of Defense. In this Perspective, we illuminate the implications of the United States and its NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) allies participating in a conventional military confrontation with Russia in Europe and the associated risk of nuclear escalation.This Perspective primarily draws on recently published RAND Corporation reports to identify strengths, weaknesses, and risks for the United States, NATO, and Russia in a large-scale war. It finds that although Russia does possess a number of key advantages in the early stages of a war that would pose serious challenges to a NATO response, its current ground force structure and posture do not ensure an obvious path to defeating NATO in an extended conflict and avoiding nuclear escalation. The Perspective also finds that there are opportunities for NATO to strengthen deterrence and shape Russian perceptions of NATOs ability to respond militarily in advance of an possible crisis scenario; this could be accomplished by CLINT REACH, EDWARD GEIST, ABB