[德国基尔]美中贸易协定及其对中国主要贸易伙伴的影响[2020]

1 Sonali Chowdhry,and Gabriel Felbermayr KIEL POLICY BRIEF The USChina Economic and Trade Agreement(ETA)entered into force on 14th February 2020,marking a new phase in their protracted trade and geopolitical rivalry.The ETA includes specific targets for increased Chinese imports of US goods and services,amounting to 200 bn USD over 2020 and 2021.These purchase commitments can generate substantial trade diversion effects and market share shifts for Chinas top trading partners.In manufacturing,Germany is likely to experience the greatest trade diversion effects in a number of industries such as vehicles(-1.28 bn USD),aircraft(-1.59 bn USD)and industrial machinery(-0.72 bn USD).Developing countries will also be hit if China redirects its imports towards US suppliers.Brazil could experience a reduction of 4.95 bn USD in soybeans exports to China in 2021 as a result of the ETA.Kiel Institute for the World Economy ISSN 21957525 N No o.1 13 34 4 FebruaryFebruary 20202020 The USChina trade deal and its impact on Chinas key trading partners