[德国基尔]2019年冠状病毒病大流行对全球经济的影响来自自由区的基于调查的证据[2020]

1 Klaus-Jrgen Gern,and Saskia Msle KIEL POLICY BRIEF In spring 2020,the world economy is severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.World trade is forecast to fall substantially in response to the measures implemented to contain the coronavirus,with a particularly strong impact likely on countries with a relatively large share of external trade in GDP such as Germany.A substantial share of global trade is generated by so-called Free Zones around the world.Against this backdrop,the Kiel Institute in cooperation with the World Free Zones Organization conducted a special survey at the end of March and in early April in order to uncover to what extent and by which channels the pandemic affects economic performance in Free Zones.According to the survey results,almost all Free Zones worldwide are already affected by the pandemic at least to some extent,and Free Zones expect limitations to activity to become worse in the coming months.While Free Zones in all world regions are affected,expectations are most pessimistic in Asia,followed by Latin America.COVID-19 affects Free Zones through different channels,including the domestic measures to contain the virus,the drop in global demand,supp