[德国基尔]其他战争手段的经济代价[2020]

1 Military interventions and economic sanctions are increasingly seen as strategic substitutes forachieving national and global security objectives,both impose economic costs.We quantify the lower bound of the costs of sanctions using a gravity model of international trade anda general equilibrium simulation model.We find that sanctions amount to a loss in GDP of about 34 billion USD in 2020 for the sanctioningNATO countries collectively,but the costs of sanctions are very unevenly distributed.No other country contributes as much as Germany(8.1 billion USD),while the costs for the USamount to 2.6 billion USD.Accounting for sanctions,countries contributions to global security as a share of GDP are closer tothe 2%NATO target than a narrow focus on military expenditure alone would suggest.Hence,there is less free-riding than some observers suspect.No.147No.147October2020October2020 SonaliChowdhry,GabrielFelbermayr,JulianHinz,KatrinKamin,AnnaKatharinaJacobs,andHendrikMahlkowKIELPOLICY BRIEF The Economic Costs of War by Other Means Kiel Institute for the World Economy ISSN 21957525