[德国基尔]非洲新冠肺炎及其对经济的影响[2021]

1 Official data substantially underreports the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths in Africa as testing and surveillance capacities are limited in many countries.Estimations of excess mortality show that Africa compares relatively favourably to other world regions,but the reporting gap is particularly high.The contraction of economic activity in 2020 was less severe than initially feared but still the worst on record and the first recession in 25 years.The economic fallout has been very heterogenous across countries and,in general,more severe in countries with a high share in the economy of services,tourism and international trade.Since mid-2020,the economic environment has improved again after the initial shock to the world economy in the spring.Mobility data confirms that the recovery is underway,albeit with interruptions due to renewed waves of infection.The pandemic is likely to have longer-term implications for development as both human and physical capital accumulation have been disrupted by the Covid-19 shock,and fiscal space and monetary policy options are exhausted in many African countries.A higher pace of vaccination is necessary to reduce pressure on health systems and