下一场印巴战争前的经验教训

2025/5/15 12:39Lessons for the next India-Pakistan warhttps:/www.brookings.edu/articles/lessons-for-the-next-india-pakistan-war/1/7After several days of strikes and counterstrikes,the fragile ceasefire betweenIndia and Pakistan,brokered by the United States,appears for the moment tobe holding.Already,both sides are telling self-justifying,bravado-ladenstoriesof varying credibilityabout what they gained.They are alsobeginning to assert with retrospective confidence that they were carefully managingthe risks of a wider war to avoid unexpected escalation.We should take such claims with considerable skepticism.Much of what unfolded overthe last few days appears to have been improvisational and opportunistic,andproduced a battlefield environment that was at times frighteningly opaque,particularlyfor a conflict involving two nuclear powers.While many basic facts about this conflictremain obfuscated by the fog of war,it is becoming clear that this was the mostdangerous India-Pakistan crisis in a quarter century.It is too early to comprehensively assess what this means for India,Pakistan,and theregion.But I think there are at least four dynamics coming into view that will shape thenature o