运动中的碎片： 黎凡特新秩序中的权力再平衡

POLICY BRIEFPIECES IN MOTION:REBALANCING POWER IN A NEW LEVANTINE ORDERJulien Barnes-Dacey,Ellie Geranmayeh,Hugh LovattMay 2025SUMMARYThe October 7th 2023 attacks on Israel led by Hamas shook the Middle Eastern kaleidoscope.The pieces are still in flux.The fall of Assad in Syria,Hizbullahs decline in Lebanon,and new efforts by Iraqs government to curb Iran-backed militias create an opening in these three fragile Levantine states.Regional powers are trying to exploit Irans weakening to gain advantage.But long-term stability in the Levant,a vital European interest,depends on the establishment of a new balance of power that can support independent governments free from external hegemony.European policymakers should use their continents diplomatic and economic weight to help achieve a regional balance:by partnering with potential stabilisers(Turkey,Saudi Arabia and Qatar),containing destabilisers(Iran and Israel),and doing more to strengthen governance in Damascus,Beirut and Baghdad.