冰下之熊： 俄罗斯在北极的野心

POLICY BRIEFTHE BEAR BENEATH THE ICE:RUSSIAS AMBITIONS IN THE ARCTICMikhail Komin,Joanna HosaMay 2025SUMMARYOver the past decade,the Arctic has emerged as a strategic priority for Russia,second only to relations with post-Soviet countries,including Ukraine.Russias policy agenda in the Arctic is shaped by insecurities over its economic and military position in the region.This agenda forms a“policy iceberg”.The Kremlins massive economic investment is the visible tip;its attempts to create a northern sea trade route buoy at the waterline with both visible economic and murkier military aims;while its militarisation in the Arctic is submerged from viewand the most threatening to Western interests.On the world stage,Russias Arctic policy is fragmented and tactical.It cherry-picks from international law,clumsily balances relations with big powers,and flirts with alternative Arctic institutions.Europeans need to situate Russias growing ambitions in the region within Moscows broader strategic aims,especially in Ukraine,and respond by rethinking their Arctic policy through closer international engagement.