矛与盾：波罗的海实用防御概念【美国陆军协会】

IntroductionOn 24 February 2022,Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.While inter-national attention was focused on the debacle of Russias stalled columns north of Kyiv,in just 48 hours,Russia penetrated deep into southern Ukraine and crossed the Dnieper River.By 27 February,Russia had seized Mykolaiv,and by 2 March,it had eliminated resistance in Kherson.Within three weeks,Russia had occupied territory equivalent to the entire area of Estonia and Latvia.Russia revealed that the infamous 2016 RAND wargames on a Russian invasion of the Baltic,which predicted that their forces could reach Tallinn or Riga in 60 hours,were not so fanciful.1 In every war it has initiated since 1939,Russia has attempted to exploit strategic surprise to rapidly defeat its opponents before they could mobilize an effective resistance.With varying degrees of success,it tried this approach in Finland,Hungary,Czechoslovakia,Afghani-stan,Chechnya,Georgia,Crimea and the rest of Ukraine.For NATO to defend the Baltic,it needs to be prepared to coun-ter a Russian attempt at exploiting strategic surprise to achieve a fait accompli.Time will be essential.NATO cannot assume that it will have weeks to mobi