[20200820]IF11628_在能源决策中使用模型.pdf

https:/crsreports.congress.gov August 20, 2020Using Models in Energy PolicymakingComputer models use mathematical representations of real world systems to gain insights into complex processes, linkages between elements in a system, and how changes to a system might affect outcomes. Such models have become commonplace in many spheres of activity, including energy policymaking. Models are simplified representations of the real world. Simplificationalong with bias, outdated and inaccurate assumptions, and other factorscan limit a models accuracy. Accordingly, models are frequently revised to improve their predictive accuracy. Well-honed models may provide useful insights for policymakers. This analysis provides an overview of energy system models and considerations for how Members of Congress might use models to inform their policy positions. Examples from past policy debates are included. Overview of Energy System Models Energy system models estimate energy supply, demand, prices, and related factors over defined time periods. Energy system models are not one-size-fits-all decisionmaking tools. Model developers design models to address different questions. Additionally, model design