[德国基尔]美中贸易协议：欧盟和世贸组织如何在有管理的贸易中失败[2020]

1 Sonali Chowdhry,and Gabriel Felbermayr KIEL POLICY BRIEF The Economic and Trade Agreement(ETA)between China and the US,also referred to as the Phase-I Deal,was signed on January 15,2020.It is a highly asymmetric treaty which commits China to open its markets and to purchase large quantities of US products in order for the US to refrain from imposing additional punitive tariffs.While the ETA contains provisions that will also benefit producers from third countries,it is highly dis-criminatory in the area of goods trade.The Phase-I Deal roughly requires Chinese imports of certain US goods to increase by about 95 bn USD in 2021 relative to the 2017 baseline.This amounts to a doubling of imports of these goods from the US.Compared to a 2021 benchmark without a USChina trade war and without the ETA,the EU is likely to lose about 11 bn USD in exports to China;this is about a sixth of the overall trade diversion caused by the ETA.The largest negative effects for the EU are expected in aircraft,vehicles,industrial machinery,optical and medical machinery,pharmaceuticals,and other agricultural goods.The country in the EU most strongly affected by the possible trade diversion effects is Ge