[德国基尔]世界经济和德国经济展望：2020年春季中期预测[2020]

1 Jens Boysen-Hogrefe,Salomon Fiedler,Klaus-Jrgen Gern,Dominik Groll,Philipp Hauber,Nils Jannsen,Stefan Kooths,Saskia Msle,and Ulrich Stolzenburg KIEL POLICY BRIEF Outlook for the World Economy and the German Economy:Interim Forecast Spring 2020 English Version May 25,May 25,20202020 World output is expected to fall by 4 percent in 2020,followed by an increase of 6.5 percent in 2021.German GDP will drop by 7.1 percent this year and rise by 7.2 percent next year.While the low point of the crisis has likely been passed,recovery to precrisis levels of activity will continue well into next year.Exports,investments in equipment,and private consumption are all declining massively in Germany this year,whereas construction is almost unaffected by the corona crisis.At over 170 billion euros,the general government will record the highest budget deficit this year since the assumption of unification-related debt from the Treuhandanstalt trust fund in 1995.Kiel Institute for the World Economy SPECIAL CORONA-UPDATE 3