觉醒后 中东未来的安全趋势[20140110].pdf

J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4 P O L I C Y B R I E FAfter the AwakeningFuture Security Trends in the Middle EastBy Jacob StokesJust over three years ago,a Tunisian fruit vendor named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire to protest police corruption and mistreatment.That act set off revolutions,protests and,later,armed rebellion and civil war across the region.The Arab Awakening has been mesmerizing.It has showcased the best and worst of the regions politics,from the hope embodied by people peacefully assembling to demand democracy to the horror of repressive violence,sectarian hatreds and economic stagnation.But the Arab Awakening remains only part of the story of what will determine the future of the Middle East.Several other big trends the chang-ing energy map,efforts to curb the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,economic crisis must also factor into predictions about what the region will look like in the years to come.I examine seven big trends driving geopolitics and economics in the Middle East today and explore how these trends might affect the future of the region.While each warrants its own extended examination,an overview of these trends and their interrelationships prov