即将到来的蜂群：蜂群的高成本价值.pdf

In the 1970s,the United States adopted an“offset”strategy to counter Soviet numerical superiority with qualitatively superior weapons.Enabled by information technology,the U.S.fielded precision-guided weapons,advanced sensors and command and control links with the intention of allowing an outnumbered but qualitatively superior force to decisively defeat a numerically superior foe.The effect of these technologies was most vividly seen in the Gulf War,when U.S.forces defeated Saddams Soviet-equipped military in a 100-hour war that saw an outsized casualty ratio of 30-to-1.The proliferation of information technology and precision-guided weapons is turning the tables on the United States,however,as other nations will have access to the same technologies that enabled a smaller force to target a larger one with high precision.Numbers may once again matter in warfare in a way they have not since World War II,when the U.S.and its allies overwhelmed the Axis powers through greater mass.Qualitative superiority will still be important,but may not be sufficient alone to guarantee victory.Uninhabited systems in particular have the potential to bring mass back to the fight in a significant way b