[20050302]RS22073_政府减赤目标分析.pdf

Congressional Research Service? ?The Library of CongressCRS Report for CongressReceived through the CRS WebOrder Code RS22073March 2, 2005An Analysis of the Administrations Deficit Reduction GoalGregg Esenwein and Marc LabonteGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryThe Bush Administration has set a goal of halving the deficit between FY2004 andFY2009. The Administration proposes to reduce the deficit from an originallyforecasted $521 billion (4.5%) in FY2004 to $233 billion (1.5% of GDP) in FY2009.The Administration can meet its deficit reduction goal if the following assumptionsmade in its FY2006 budget proposal occur. First, alternative minimum tax (AMT) reliefis allowed to expire so that the AMT would take back most of the current reduction inthe regular income tax for a large number of taxpayers. Second, discretionary spendingfalls from 8.2% of GDP to a historically low 6.1% of GDP. Third, spending on militaryoperations abroad will be negligible by FY2009. Finally, the cost of creating individualaccounts for Social Security as proposed by the Administration is not included in thebudget. CRS has constructed a modified baseline budget which, arguably, provides a “bestguess” of the