[20071217]RS22775_长期经济增长：可持续发展目标.pdf

Order Code RS22775December 17, 2007Long-Term Economic Growth: Sustainable GoalsBrian W. CashellSpecialist in Macroeconomic PolicyGovernment and Finance DivisionSummaryGross domestic product (GDP) can be expressed as the product of five factors: thetotal population; the share of the overall population that is in the labor force; the shareof the labor force that is employed; average labor hours per employee; and GDP dividedby labor hours, which is labor productivity. Over long periods of time, the employment(unemployment) rate has had little to do with variations in the rate of economic growth,while the growth rate of the population has been gradually declining. At times the effectof declining population growth has been offset by surges in the share of the populationthat is in the labor force, as well as by increases in productivity growth. So far in the2000s, overall economic growth can be mostly accounted for by just two variables,population and productivity growth. Growth in the labor force between now and 2050is expected to be an average of about 0.6% per year. That, combined with currentproductivity growth trends, suggests future long-run economic growth somewherebetween 2.1 and