[20160228]IF10313_中国的“经济奇迹”结束了吗？.pdf

https:/crsreports.congress.gov Updated February 28, 2016Is the Chinese “Economic Miracle” Over?Since initiating free-market reforms in 1978, China has been one of the worlds fastest-growing economies, averaging 9.7% in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth annually from 1979 to 2015 and lifting 660 million people out of extreme poverty, according to the World Bank. In 2014, China overtook the United States as the worlds largest economy on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Over the past few years, however, Chinas economy has slowed. Its real GDP growth was 7.3% in 2014 and 6.9% in 2015, and is projected by the IMF to fall to 6.0% by 2017. Chinas merchandise trade, once the main engine of the countrys economic growth, also has stagnated. In 2015, Chinas exports and imports fell by 2.7% and 18.4%, respectively over 2014 levels. Chinas slowing economy appears to have had a negative impact on the global economy, especially among countries that rely heavily on commodities (e.g., oil and ores) trade with China. Figure 1. Chinas Annual GDP and Total Factor Productivity Growth (%) Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Chinas