[20171116]IN10819_津巴布韦：军事强制过渡？.pdf

Zimbabwe: A Military-Compelled Transition? name redacted Specialist in African Affairs November 16, 2017 Between November 14 and 15, members of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces (ZDF) seized control of the state-owned Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation and secured other key political and military facilities, in an action seen by some observers as a coup dtat. The ultimate objective and possible trajectory of their intervention remain unclear, but the move appears to have been sparked by a succession struggle within the ruling Zimbabwe National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). Specific triggers were President Robert Mugabes November 6 dismissal of one of Zimbabwes two vice presidents, Emmerson Mnangagwa, and a purge of Mnangagwas supporters. These actions followed signs that Mugabe, age 93, was moving to make Grace Mugabe, his politically ambitious wife, a vice president. This would likely have positioned her to succeed him as president and sidelined her main rival, Mnangagwa, an ex-intelligence chief and Defense Minister. Top security force leaders, many reported allies of Mnangagwaand, like him, veterans of Zimbabwes war of independence, unlike Grace Mugabeapparently viewed these prospe