有争议的水域 处理东海和南海争端[20121214].pdf

d e c e m b e r 2 0 1 2 by Patrick m.cronine a s t a n d s o u t h c h i n a s e a s b u L L e t i n 6Contested Waters:Managing Disputes in the East and South China SeasAbout this publicationthe bulletin series provides timely analysis and information on security issues in the east and south china seas.For further information,please contact infocnas.org.President Barack Obamas November 2012 trip to Southeast Asia did little to quell tensions in the East and South China Seas.His reiteration of U.S.support for a multilateral approach to averting disputes was rebuffed by China and avoided by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN).No progress was made on a code of conduct,and ship movements in and around disputed seas appeared unchanged in the aftermath of the high-level diplomacy in Cambodia.Realistically,no breakthrough was expected.Diplomacy can attenu-ate these maritime tensions but not resolve them.Friction in these contested waters is likely to persist for some time.But given what is at stake,Washington needs a coherent strategy for managing the intractable disputes in the East and South China Seas.Current trends strongly suggest that the Indo-Pacific region will provi